Timezone: »
We propose a novel bound on single-variable marginal probability distributions in factor graphs with discrete variables. The bound is obtained by propagating bounds (convex sets of probability distributions) over a subtree of the factor graph, rooted in the variable of interest. By construction, the method not only bounds the exact marginal probability distribution of a variable, but also its approximate Belief Propagation marginal (``belief''). Thus, apart from providing a practical means to calculate bounds on marginals, our contribution also lies in providing a better understanding of the error made by Belief Propagation. We show that our bound outperforms the state-of-the-art on some inference problems arising in medical diagnosis.
Author Information
Joris M Mooij (Radboud University Nijmegen)
Hilbert J Kappen (Radboud University)
Related Events (a corresponding poster, oral, or spotlight)
-
2008 Poster: Bounds on marginal probability distributions »
Wed Dec 10th through Tue the 9th Room None
More from the Same Authors
-
2013 Workshop: Planning with Information Constraints for Control, Reinforcement Learning, Computational Neuroscience, Robotics and Games. »
Hilbert J Kappen · Naftali Tishby · Jan Peters · Evangelos Theodorou · David H Wolpert · Pedro Ortega -
2011 Poster: Learning sparse inverse covariance matrices in the presence of confounders »
Oliver Stegle · Christoph Lippert · Joris M Mooij · Neil D Lawrence · Karsten Borgwardt -
2011 Poster: Causal Discovery with Cyclic Additive Noise Models »
Joris M Mooij · Dominik Janzing · Tom Heskes · Bernhard Schölkopf -
2011 Poster: Speedy Q-Learning »
Mohammad Gheshlaghi Azar · Remi Munos · Mohammad Ghavamzadeh · Hilbert J Kappen -
2010 Poster: Probabilistic latent variable models for distinguishing between cause and effect »
Joris M Mooij · Oliver Stegle · Dominik Janzing · Kun Zhang · Bernhard Schölkopf -
2009 Workshop: Probabilistic Approaches for Control and Robotics »
Marc Deisenroth · Hilbert J Kappen · Emo Todorov · Duy Nguyen-Tuong · Carl Edward Rasmussen · Jan Peters -
2008 Poster: Nonlinear causal discovery with additive noise models »
Patrik O Hoyer · Dominik Janzing · Joris M Mooij · Jonas Peters · Bernhard Schölkopf -
2008 Spotlight: Nonlinear causal discovery with additive noise models »
Patrik O Hoyer · Dominik Janzing · Joris M Mooij · Jonas Peters · Bernhard Schölkopf -
2008 Poster: Self-organization using dynamical synapses »
Vicenç Gómez · Andreas Kaltenbrunner · Vicente López · Hilbert J Kappen