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Distributionally Robust Markov Decision Processes
Huan Xu · Shie Mannor

Wed Dec 08 12:00 AM -- 12:00 AM (PST) @

We consider Markov decision processes where the values of the parameters are uncertain. This uncertainty is described by a sequence of nested sets (that is, each set contains the previous one), each of which corresponds to a probabilistic guarantee for a different confidence level so that a set of admissible probability distributions of the unknown parameters is specified. This formulation models the case where the decision maker is aware of and wants to exploit some (yet imprecise) a-priori information of the distribution of parameters, and arises naturally in practice where methods to estimate the confidence region of parameters abound. We propose a decision criterion based on distributional robustness: the optimal policy maximizes the expected total reward under the most adversarial probability distribution over realizations of the uncertain parameters that is admissible (i.e., it agrees with the a-priori information). We show that finding the optimal distributionally robust policy can be reduced to a standard robust MDP where the parameters belong to a single uncertainty set, hence it can be computed in polynomial time under mild technical conditions.

Author Information

Huan Xu (National University of Singapore)
Shie Mannor (Technion)

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