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Global seismic monitoring as probabilistic inference
Nimar Arora · Stuart J Russell · Paul Kidwell · Erik Sudderth

Tue Dec 07 12:00 AM -- 12:00 AM (PST) @

The International Monitoring System (IMS) is a global network of sensors whose purpose is to identify potential violations of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), primarily through detection and localization of seismic events. We report on the first stage of a project to improve on the current automated software system with a Bayesian inference system that computes the most likely global event history given the record of local sensor data. The new system, VISA (Vertically Integrated Seismological Analysis), is based on empirically calibrated, generative models of event occurrence, signal propagation, and signal detection. VISA exhibits significantly improved precision and recall compared to the current operational system and is able to detect events that are missed even by the human analysts who post-process the IMS output.

Author Information

Nimar Arora (Facebook)
Stuart J Russell (UC Berkeley)
Paul Kidwell (Lawrence Livermore National Lab)
Erik Sudderth (University of California, Irvine)

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