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Spotlight
Modelling Reciprocating Relationships with Hawkes processes
Charles Blundell · Katherine Heller · Jeff Beck

Tue Dec 04 11:52 AM -- 11:59 PM (PST) @ Harveys Convention Center Floor, CC
in Spotlight Session 2 »

We present a Bayesian nonparametric model that discovers implicit social structure from interaction time-series data. Social groups are often formed implicitly, through actions among members of groups. Yet many models of social networks use explicitly declared relationships to infer social structure. We consider a particular class of Hawkes processes, a doubly stochastic point process, that is able to model reciprocity between groups of individuals. We then extend the Infinite Relational Model by using these reciprocating Hawkes processes to parameterise its edges, making events associated with edges co-dependent through time. Our model outperforms general, unstructured Hawkes processes as well as structured Poisson process-based models at predicting verbal and email turn-taking, and military conflicts among nations.

Author Information

Charles Blundell (DeepMind)
Katherine Heller (Google)
Jeff Beck

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