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Predictive State Recurrent Neural Networks
Carlton Downey · Ahmed Hefny · Byron Boots · Geoffrey Gordon · Boyue Li

Mon Dec 04 06:30 PM -- 10:30 PM (PST) @ Pacific Ballroom #48

We present a new model, Predictive State Recurrent Neural Networks (PSRNNs), for filtering and prediction in dynamical systems. PSRNNs draw on insights from both Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and Predictive State Representations (PSRs), and inherit advantages from both types of models. Like many successful RNN architectures, PSRNNs use (potentially deeply composed) bilinear transfer functions to combine information from multiple sources. We show that such bilinear functions arise naturally from state updates in Bayes filters like PSRs, in which observations can be viewed as gating belief states. We also show that PSRNNs can be learned effectively by combining Backpropogation Through Time (BPTT) with an initialization derived from a statistically consistent learning algorithm for PSRs called two-stage regression (2SR). Finally, we show that PSRNNs can be factorized using tensor decomposition, reducing model size and suggesting interesting connections to existing multiplicative architectures such as LSTMs and GRUs. We apply PSRNNs to 4 datasets, and show that we outperform several popular alternative approaches to modeling dynamical systems in all cases.

Author Information

Carlton Downey (Carnegie Mellon University)
Ahmed Hefny (Carnegie Mellon University)
Byron Boots (Georgia Tech / Google Brain)
Geoffrey Gordon (MSR Montréal & CMU)

Dr. Gordon is an Associate Research Professor in the Department of Machine Learning at Carnegie Mellon University, and co-director of the Department's Ph. D. program. He works on multi-robot systems, statistical machine learning, game theory, and planning in probabilistic, adversarial, and general-sum domains. His previous appointments include Visiting Professor at the Stanford Computer Science Department and Principal Scientist at Burning Glass Technologies in San Diego. Dr. Gordon received his B.A. in Computer Science from Cornell University in 1991, and his Ph.D. in Computer Science from Carnegie Mellon University in 1999.

Boyue Li (Carnegie Mellon University)

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