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Workshop: Adaptive Experimental Design and Active Learning in the Real World

ALAS: Active Learning for Autoconversion Rates Prediction from Satellite Data

Maria Carolina Novitasari · Johannes Quaas · Miguel Rodrigues


High-resolution simulations, such as the ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic Large-Eddy Model (ICON-LEM), provide valuable insights into the complex interactions among aerosols, clouds, and precipitation, which are the major contributors to climate change uncertainty. However, due to its exorbitant computational costs, it can only be employed for a limited period and geographical area. To address this, we propose a more cost-effective method powered by emerging machine learning approach to better understand the intricate dynamics of the climate system. Our approach involves active learning techniques -- by leveraging high-resolution climate simulation as the oracle and an abundant amount of unlabeled data drawn from satellite observations -- to predict autoconversion rates, a crucial step in precipitation formation, while significantly reducing the need for a large number of labeled instances. In this study, we present novel methods: custom query strategy fusion for labeling instances, WiFi and MeFi, along with active feature selection based on SHAP, designed to tackle real-world challenges due to its simplicity and practicality in application, specifically focusing on the prediction of autoconversion rates.

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