Granger Components Analysis: Unsupervised learning of latent temporal dependencies

A new technique for unsupervised learning of time series data based on the notion of Granger causality is presented. The technique learns pairs of projections of a multivariate data set such that the resulting components -- "driving" and "driven" -- maximize the strength of the Granger causality between the latent time series (how strongly the past of the driving signal predicts the present of the driven signal). A coordinate descent algorithm that learns pairs of coefficient vectors in an alternating fashion is developed and shown to blindly identify the underlying sources (up to scale) on simulated vector autoregressive (VAR) data. The technique is tested on scalp electroencephalography (EEG) data from a motor imagery experiment where the resulting components lateralize with the side of the cued hand, and also on functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data, where the recovered components express previously reported resting-state networks.