Kinetics: Rethinking Test-Time Scaling Law

We rethink test-time scaling laws from a practical efficiency perspective, revealing that the effectiveness of smaller models is significantly overestimated. Prior work, grounded in compute-optimality, overlooks critical memory access bottlenecks introduced by inference-time strategies (e.g., Best-of-N, long CoTs). Our holistic analysis, spanning models from 0.6B to 32B parameters, reveals a new Kinetics Scaling Law that better guides resource allocation by incorporating both computation and memory access costs. The Kinetics Scaling Law suggests that test-time compute is more effective when used on models above a threshold (14B) than on smaller ones. A key reason is that in test-time scaling, attention—rather than parameter count—emerges as the dominant cost factor. Motivated by this, we propose a new scaling paradigm centered on sparse attention, which lowers per-token cost and enables longer generations and more parallel samples within the same resource budget. Empirically, we show that sparse attention models consistently outperform dense counterparts, achieving over 60-point gains in low-cost regimes and over 5-point gains in high-cost regimes for problem-solving accuracy on AIME and LiveCodeBench. These results suggest that sparse attention is essential for realizing the full potential of test-time scaling because, unlike training where parameter scaling saturates, test-time accuracy continues to improve through increased generation.