Tightening Regret Lower and Upper Bounds in Restless Rising Bandits

*Restless* Multi-Armed Bandits (MABs) are a general framework designed to handle real-world decision-making problems where the expected rewards evolve over time, such as in recommender systems and dynamic pricing. In this work, we investigate from a theoretical standpoint two well-known structured subclasses of restless MABs: the *rising* and the *rising concave* settings, where the expected reward of each arm evolves over time following an unknown *non-decreasing* and a *non-decreasing concave* function, respectively. By providing a novel methodology of independent interest for general restless bandits, we establish new lower bounds on the expected cumulative regret for both settings. In the rising case, we prove a lower bound of order $\Omega(T^{2/3})$, matching known upper bounds for restless bandits; whereas, in the rising concave case, we derive a lower bound of order $\Omega(T^{3/5})$, proving for the first time that this setting is provably more challenging than stationary MABs. Then, we introduce Rising Concave Budgeted Exploration (RC-BE($\alpha$)), a new regret minimization algorithm designed for the rising concave MABs. By devising a novel proof technique, we show that the expected cumulative regret of RC-BE($\alpha$) is in the order of $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(T^{7/11})$. These results collectively make a step towards closing the gap in rising concave MABs, positioning them between stationary and general restless bandit settings in terms of statistical complexity.