Scaling Epidemic Inference on Contact Networks: Theory and Algorithms

Computational epidemiology is crucial in understanding and controlling infectious diseases, as highlighted by large-scale outbreaks such as COVID-19. Given the inherent uncertainty and variability of disease spread, Monte Carlo (MC) simulations are widely used to predict infection peaks, estimate reproduction numbers, and evaluate the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). While effective, MC-based methods require numerous runs to achieve statistically reliable estimates and variance, which suffer from high computational costs. In this work, we present a unified theoretical framework for analyzing disease spread dynamics on both directed and undirected contact networks, and propose an algorithm, RAPID, that significantly improves computational efficiency. Our contributions are threefold. First, we derive an asymptotic variance lower bound for MC estimates and identify the key factors influencing estimation variance. Second, we provide a theoretical analysis of the probabilistic disease spread process using linear approximations and derive the convergence conditions under non-reinfection epidemic models. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments on six real-world datasets, demonstrating our method's effectiveness and robustness in estimating the nodes' final state distribution. Specifically, our proposed method consistently produces accurate estimates aligned with results from a large number of MC simulations, while maintaining a runtime comparable to a single MC simulation. Our code and datasets are available at https://github.com/GuanghuiMin/RAPID.