Universal Causal Inference in a Topos

In this paper, we explore the universal properties underlying causal inference by formulating it in terms of a topos. More concretely, we introduce topos causal models (TCMs), a strict generalization of the popular structural causal models (SCMs). A topos category has several properties that make it attractive: a general theory for how to combine local functions that define ``independent causal mechanisms" into a consistent global function building on the theory of sheaves in a topos; a generic way to define causal interventions using a subobject classifier in a topos category; and finally, an internal logical language for causal and counterfactual reasoning that emerges from the topos itself. A striking characteristic of subobject classifiers is that they induce an intuitionistic logic, whose semantics is based on the partially ordered lattice of subobjects. We show that the underlying subobject classifier for causal inference is not Boolean in general, but forms a Heyting algebra. We define the internal Mitchell-B\'enabou language, a typed local set theory, associated with causal models, and its associated Kripke-Joyal intuitionistic semantics. We prove a universal property of TCM, namely that any causal functor mapping decomposable structure to probabilistic semantics factors uniquely through a TCM representation.