Model Provenance Testing for Large Language Models

Large language models are increasingly customized through fine-tuning and other adaptations, creating challenges in enforcing licensing terms and managing downstream impacts such as protecting intellectual property or identifying vulnerabilities. We address this challenge by developing a framework for testing model provenance. Our approach is based on the key observation that real-world model derivations preserve significant similarities in model outputs that can be detected through statistical analysis. Using only black-box access to models, we employ multiple hypothesis testing to compare model similarities against a baseline established by unrelated models. On two comprehensive real-world benchmarks spanning models from 30M to 4B parameters and comprising over 600 models, our tester achieves 90-95% precision and 80-90% recall in identifying derived models. These results demonstrate the viability of systematic provenance verification in production environments even when only API access is available.