Learning steganography is easy, learning steganographic reasoning is hard

Chain-of-thought monitoring as an approach for AI oversight and control is threatened by the possibility of steganographic reasoning, where LLMs conceal their reasoning inside innocuous-looking text. Two neighbouring capabilities, steganographic messaging (passing a concealed message) and encoded reasoning (reasoning in an illegible but unconcealed format), have already been shown to emerge under training pressures that occur in real pipelines, such as reinforcement learning against monitors, suggesting that steganographic reasoning too might arise as an unintended side effect of training. Here, we compare how easily models learn steganographic reasoning and these two neighbouring capabilities across three elicitation methods: reinforcement learning, in-context learning, and supervised fine-tuning (SFT). While models learn steganographic messaging and encoded reasoning under all three elicitation methods, they learn steganographic reasoning, for most tasks, only under SFT. Even under SFT, steganographic reasoning requires at least twice as much training as messaging, and for several model-task combinations it is not learned at all. However, on a cover task that makes hiding information especially convenient, steganographic reasoning can be successfully learned under all three elicitation methods. Steganographic reasoning is thus much harder than steganographic messaging and encoded reasoning, and learning the latter two does not imply the ability to learn the former, but it is at the edge of LLMs' abilities, since an easy version of it can be learned, demonstrating the threat to chain-of-thought monitoring.