Which Information Matters for Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones? A Global-Basin Feature Ablation Study

Rapid intensification (RI), defined as an increase of at least 30 kt in maximum sustained wind over 24 h, can rapidly escalate tropical-cyclone hazards while leaving little time for preparation. Although existing statistical and machine-learning methods combine recent storm evolution with environmental predictors, high-performing models can be difficult to interpret, leaving unclear which information drives their predictions. How much do surface and pressure-level predictors, such as sea surface temperature (SST) and vertical wind shear (VWS), add once recent storm behavior is known? We answer this through controlled feature ablations across global basins using ERA5 reanalysis.