Claudia Hulbert

Machine Learning Reveals the Coupling Between Slow Slips and Major Earthquakes

The potential connection between slow slips and earthquakes of large magnitude in subduction zones remains an open question in seismology. Slow slips (earthquakes releasing energy over long periods of times, up to several months) have been observed preceding major earthquake ruptures, suggesting that they may couple to or evolve into a megaquake.

We rely on supervised machine learning algorithms to analyze vast amounts of continuous seismic data, with the goal of identifying hidden signals preceding earthquakes. We find that continuous seismic signals identified in our previous studies of slow slip events carry information about the timing of impending earthquakes of large magnitude. Our results suggest that large earthquakes occur almost systematically in the same phase of the slow slip cycle, and point to a systematic, large-scale coupling between slow slip events and major earthquakes.