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Language Models Can Improve Event Prediction by Few-Shot Abductive Reasoning

Xiaoming Shi · Siqiao Xue · Kangrui Wang · Fan Zhou · James Zhang · Jun Zhou · Chenhao Tan · Hongyuan Mei

Great Hall & Hall B1+B2 (level 1) #408


Large language models have shown astonishing performance on a wide range of reasoning tasks. In this paper, we investigate whether they could reason about real-world events and help improve the prediction performance of event sequence models. We design LAMP, a framework that integrates a large language model in event prediction. Particularly, the language model performs abductive reasoning to assist an event sequence model: the event model proposes predictions on future events given the past; instructed by a few expert-annotated demonstrations, the language model learns to suggest possible causes for each proposal; a search module finds out the previous events that match the causes; a scoring function learns to examine whether the retrieved events could actually cause the proposal. Through extensive experiments on several challenging real-world datasets, we demonstrate that our framework---thanks to the reasoning capabilities of large language models---could significantly outperform the state-of-the-art event sequence models.

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