How much can we forget about Data Contamination?

The leakage of benchmark data into the training data has emerged as a significant challenge for evaluating the capabilities of large language models (LLMs). In this work, we use experimental evidence and theoretical estimates to challenge the common assumption that small-scale contamination renders benchmark evaluations invalid. First, we experimentally quantify the magnitude of benchmark overfitting based on scaling along three dimensions: The number of model parameters (up to 1.6B), the number of times an example is seen (up to 144), and the number of training tokens (up to 40B). We find that if model and data follow the Chinchilla scaling laws, minor contamination indeed leads to overfitting. At the same time, even 144 times of contamination can be forgotten if the training data is scaled beyond five times Chinchilla, a regime characteristic of many modern LLMs. We then derive a simple theory of example forgetting via cumulative weight decay. It allows us to bound the number of gradient steps required to forget past data for any training run where we know the hyperparameters of AdamW. This indicates that many LLMs, including Llama 3, have forgotten the data seen at the beginning of training. Experimentally, we demonstrate that forgetting occurs faster than what is predicted by our bounds. Taken together, our results suggest that moderate amounts of contamination can be forgotten at the end of realistically scaled training runs.