Oral Poster
Do Finetti: On Causal Effects for Exchangeable Data
Siyuan Guo · Chi Zhang · Karthika Mohan · Ferenc Huszar · Bernhard Schölkopf
West Ballroom A-D #5000
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Abstract
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Oral
presentation:
Oral Session 5B: Graph Neural Networks, Causal Inference
Fri 13 Dec 10 a.m. PST — 11 a.m. PST
Fri 13 Dec 11 a.m. PST
— 2 p.m. PST
Fri 13 Dec 10 a.m. PST — 11 a.m. PST
Abstract:
We study causal effect estimation in a setting where the data are not i.i.d.$\ $(independent and identically distributed). We focus on exchangeable data satisfying an assumption of independent causal mechanisms. Traditional causal effect estimation frameworks, e.g., relying on structural causal models and do-calculus, are typically limited to i.i.d. data and do not extend to more general exchangeable generative processes, which naturally arise in multi-environment data. To address this gap, we develop a generalized framework for exchangeable data and introduce a truncated factorization formula that facilitates both the identification and estimation of causal effects in our setting. To illustrate potential applications, we introduce a causal Pólya urn model and demonstrate how intervention propagates effects in exchangeable data settings. Finally, we develop an algorithm that performs simultaneous causal discovery and effect estimation given multi-environment data.
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