The predominant approach in reinforcement learning is to assign credit to actions based on the expected return. However, we show that the return may depend on the policy in a way which could lead to excessive variance in value estimation and slow down learning. Instead, we show that the advantage function can be interpreted as causal effects and shares similar properties with causal representations. Based on this insight, we propose Direct Advantage Estimation (DAE), a novel method that can model the advantage function and estimate it directly from on-policy data while simultaneously minimizing the variance of the return without requiring the (action-)value function. We also relate our method to Temporal Difference methods by showing how value functions can be seamlessly integrated into DAE. The proposed method is easy to implement and can be readily adapted by modern actor-critic methods. We evaluate DAE empirically on three discrete control domains and show that it can outperform generalized advantage estimation (GAE), a strong baseline for advantage estimation, on a majority of the environments when applied to policy optimization.