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Workshop: Tackling Climate Change with Machine Learning

Deep learning for downscaling tropical cyclone rainfall

Emily Vosper · Lucy Harris · Andrew McRae · Laurence Aitchison · Peter Watson · Raul Santos-Rodriguez · Dann Mitchell


Flooding is often the leading cause of mortality and damages from tropical cyclones. With rainfall from tropical cyclones set to rise under global warming, better estimates of extreme rainfall are required to better support resilience efforts. While high resolution climate models capture tropical cyclone statistics well, they are computationally expensive leading to a trade-off between accuracy and generating enough ensemble members to generate sufficient high impact, low probability events. Often, downscaling models are used as a computationally cheaper alternative. Here, we develop and evaluate a set of deep learning models for downscaling tropical cyclone rainfall for more robust risk analysis.

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