From Headlines to Power Flow: Probabilistic Assessment of EV Charger Adoption Growth and Distribution-Grid Impact in Brazil

Brazil's electric-vehicle market is surging: electrified sales grew 89% in 2024 and a further 26% in 2025 to 223,912 units, while public charging points grew from 220 (2019) to 12000 (2025) — on a grid that is already 90% renewable, so every absorbed charging kilowatt-hour is nearly zero-carbon transport. Yet distribution system operators (DSOs) must plan this growth with point forecasts, deterministic penetration scenarios, and no public Brazilian charging-session data. We propose a five-stage research programme that (i) triangulates media signals, international adoption analogs, sales registries, academic studies, and institutional publications into calibrated predictive distributions of charger growth by class (AC, DC, high-power, megawatt) and concession region; (ii) converts fossil-fuel sales into expected charging energy; (iii) generates domain-adapted synthetic charging datasets via machine learning; (iv) propagates adoption ensembles through multi-period optimal power flow (OPF); and (v) quantifies how fair dynamic operating envelopes (DOEs) and coordinated charging defer grid reinforcement. Deliverables include an open benchmark dataset and a plannable workflow for Brazilian DSOs and regulators.