One pool, many targets: a conservation layer and what archival data can identify

Pairwise guide-transcript scores do not enforce conservation of a finite guide-loaded RISC pool when they are interpreted independently as occupancies. We formulate a differentiable scalar equilibrium layer: one conservation equation with a unique positive root and exact implicit gradients. It yields a redistribution theorem, a qualified high-resource limit, an analysis of the retrieval approximation, and a conditional rank-invariance result: within one construct at one dose, rankings by fractional occupancy cannot distinguish equilibrium from independent scoring. We therefore audit the two experiments that proposition leaves open, dose and cross-context, on archival off-target data. Corrected thermodynamic affinities associate weakly with measured repression in the direction a working predictor requires, but a paired permutation test and a construct-cluster bootstrap do not establish added predictive value from the coupling: what survives their differing permutation-null baselines is 0.0026, a descriptive 0.22 of the equilibrium association's cluster standard error. The dose fits are heterogeneous and frequently violate the model-implied exponent constraint, which is superlinear rather than sublinear, so these data do not identify the competition parameter. A saturable compression of the competitor set holds both accuracy targets on held-out guide families but is not faster at the size measured. The contribution is a reusable conservation operator and the experimental information needed to test it.